Population Immunity Projection Tool

This tool models and visualizes the projected level of seroprotection in a population over time following vaccination campaigns. Using a dynamic epidemiological model (SIRV with waning immunity and periodic vaccinations), it estimates monthly immunity levels based on:

  1. Pre-vaccination and post-vaccination seroprotection rates.
  2. Last date of vaccination.
  3. Vaccination coverage.
  4. Vaccination periodicity.
  5. Desired projection window.
The output is an interactive Plotly bar chart showing how population immunity evolves month by month. Bars are color-coded by protection level, and a red dashed line marks a critical immunity threshold. An additional summary stats is included which provides the Seroconverion and Effective Coverage based on the input values.

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Enter the parameter values on the left and click the Calculate button to view the results.

Note

Risk calculation is based on herd immunity threshold ranges estimated using a simulation model and assumes immunity loss due to antibody waning in livestock population. The current protection percentage reflects the seroprotection achieved through vaccination; however, it may change in response to recent outbreaks, which could impact overall immunity levels and risk assessments.